Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen to Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season!
Hopefully you were able to walk out of Weeks 1 & 2 with a victory and you’re ready to head into Week 3 and all of the chaos that it contains! There’s a lot of injury updates and news to sort through and some key players are going to be out today. If you have questions – and I know you do – make sure that you’re tuning in to the Youtube Livestreams at 11:00am EST and 12:00pm EST over on The Fantasy Playbook Youtube Channel!
In the meantime, grab that cup of coffee, settle in, and let’s get the information we need to dominate our matchups here in Week 3!
The Injury Hub
Each week, you’ll find a section of the cheatsheet providing the latest injury updates to key players.
Mike Evans (Suspended)
Kyle Philips (Not Expected to Play)
Gabe Davis (Expected to Play)
Dalton Schultz (Game Time Decision)
Justin Herbert (Game Time Decision)
Josh Jacobs (Illness – Game Time Decision)
Keenan Allen (Game Time Decision)
JK Dobbins (Expected to Play)
James Conner (Game Time Decision)
Hayden Hurst (Game Time Decision)
Isaiah Likely (Game Time Decision)
Jerry Jeudy (Expected to Play)
Christian Watson (Unlikely to Play)
Randall Cobb (Expected to Play)
Corey Davis (Game Time Decision)
Taysom Hill (Not Expected to Play)
Leonard Fournette (Expected to Play)
Julio Jones (Game Time Decision)
Russell Gage (Expected to Play)
TJ Hockenson (Expected to Play)
Dawson Knox (Game Time Decision)
Jakobi Meyers (Not Expected to Play)
D’Andre Swift (Expected to Play)
Michael Gallup (Expected to Play)
Alvin Kamara (Expected to Play)
KJ Hamler (Expected to Play)
The Starts of the Week
Each week, you’ll find a section of the cheatsheet providing Kyle Yates’ Starts of the Week. These are released on Thursday on the podcast & on Youtube.
QB: Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
We are now through two weeks and Jared Goff is the QB9 on the season with 6 touchdowns to just 1 interception. This offense in Detroit is actually fun to watch and now they get a matchup against Minnesota who is ranked 28th in Pass DVOA and just gave up 333 passing yards to Jalen Hurts. I’m not ranking him as a top-5 play, but he’s definitely in the streaming conversation especially when the QB position just got real gross real quick with a lot of key options not producing. Goff’s just outside of the top-12 on the week for me and I’m playing him over Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and it’s a coin flip between him and Russell Wilson in the rankings for me currently.
RB: Michael Carter (New York Jets)
Carter of the New York Jets remains very intriguing to me going into this matchup against Cincinnati. The Bengals remain a very tough matchup on the ground for opposing RBs, giving up just 3.4 Yards Per Carry. However, they’re averaging 6 targets per game allowed to RBs and that’s before going up against Joe Flacco, the “checkdown king”. Play the game script forward. This is a get right game for Cincinnati. They’re going to come out here and get this offense corrected, which means the Jets are going to be playing from behind yet again and that means passing volume for Flacco. Through two games, Carter is tied for the second-most targets at the RB position in all of football. He might not get a ton done on the ground, and the potential to find the end zone maybe isn’t there to push him into the top-15. But as a RB2 option, especially in Full PPR formats, he deserves to be considered due to his involvement in the offense and the projected game script. RB32 in ECR is just way too low and Carter sits just inside the top-24 in my rankings currently. I’m currently playing Carter over Cordarrelle Patterson, Darrell Henderson, James Robinson, and Dameon Pierce.
WR: Treylon Burks (Tennessee Titans)
Don’t look now, but Treylon Burks is starting to get rolling. Per Pro Football Focus, for WRs with over 10 targets this season, Burks is 5th in the NFL in Yards Per Route Run. Additionally, through two weeks he now has a 37% Target Per Route Run rate, which is the highest in the NFL for players with over 10 targets. Higher than Stefon Diggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyreek Hill. When he’s out there, he’s getting the ball and it’s translating to production. Yes, we have concerns about the offense but the target volume is there now and it should only increase as his playing time ticks up. The matchup against the Raiders corners doesn’t scare me off of plugging Burks into my starting lineup now as a WR3 with upside due to his talent level. Currently, I’m playing Burks over Juju Smith-Schuster – I know that’s going to be controversial – Jarvis Landry, Allen Lazard, Devonta Smith, and if I had Burks and DK Metcalf on my roster…that’s a really close decision.
Every Treylon Burks catch from MNF (clipped from the broadcast, poor-ish quality)
Burks lead the Titans in targets, catches, and total yards.
Have to think a full-time role is brewing. I would be sending out some offers in home leagues for him this week. pic.twitter.com/sLeLH6lhq9
— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) September 20, 2022
TE: Logan Thomas (Washington Commanders)
Logan Thomas is just sitting outside the top-12 TEs in ECR right now and he is going to be my start of the week. Thomas is still being worked back into the offense, but he saw his snap share increase in Week 2 and he was out there for 32 of 53 pass plays in Week 2. He saw 5 targets and was able to reel in the touchdown. The key part here though is that Thomas was essentially rested in the 4th quarter of that game against Detroit and that isn’t going to be the case moving forward as he gets his endurance and stamina back. You’re going to get a safe target floor with him due to his involvement in the offense, plus the touchdown upside due to his frame and the fact that Carson Wentz is throwing touchdowns at a ridiculous rate. If he can start to see that playing time increase too, that’s just even more opportunity. The Eagles are allowing the 9th most fantasy points to opposing TEs through two weeks and Thomas deserves to be in your starting lineup if you picked him up off of waivers this week.
Players To Avoid
Each week, you’ll find a section of the cheatsheet here with players that Kyle Yates has concern over their matchups, etc. and you should look to avoid if you can.
QB: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
Tom Brady is definitely a sit here for me again this week, but I included him last week so I don’t want to just beat a dead horse there. It’s just too many injuries in the WR corps for me to feel comfortable. Aaron Rodgers is going to get the official nod for me though as someone to avoid if you can in Week 3. Guys, we’re now through two games and Mac Jones has more passing yards than Rodgers this year. Jared Goff has three times as many passing touchdowns as Rodgers. It’s just not the same offense this year without Davante Adams and he’s no longer performing like MVP Rodgers. We need to stop viewing him as a must start option and I’d look to pivot off of him if I can. I’m playing Jared Goff and Carson Wentz over both Brady and Rodgers this week and I hate what I’ve become.
RB: Najee Harris (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Najee Harris continues to be ranked too high in ECR. RB13 on the week for a player who has done very little from a production standpoint so far this season, he’s in a bad offense, and he’s going up against the defense that’s allowing the 4th fewest rushing yards per game to opposing RBs so far. This matchup against Cleveland is a very low over/under and the Steelers only have a team implied point total of 17 points. With Harris averaging just 2.9 yards per carry on the season and 6.1 yards per reception, he needs to find the end zone to return RB13 value. We need to remove the name from the equation and simply look at the production and upcoming matchup and I don’t see it. Until I see the efficiency tick up, I’ll continue to rank Harris as a mid-range/low-end RB2. I’d start Antonio Gibson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and David Montgomery over him currently.
WR: Rashod Bateman (Baltimore Ravens)
Bateman currently has less targets on the year than Ashton Dulin, Zay Jones, Greg Dortch, Noah Brown, Corey Davis, Tyler Locket, and Hunter Renfrow just to name a few. He has the same amount of targets as Richie James, DJ Chark, Nico Collins, Chase Claypool, and Donovan Peoples-Jones just to name a few. He has just a 20% team target share. He is averaging 16 Yards After the Catch per Reception – just to put that into context, AJ Brown is averaging 6.5 yards after the catch per reception – and this player has 27.8 Yards Per Reception on the year. He is also scoring a touchdown every 3 receptions. Does this sound like stupid and ridiculous – and unsustainable – efficiency to you? Oh and he is at WR23 in ECR on the week right now going up against New England, a defense that is notorious for taking away your best player. I’ve talked about Bateman here before that I love the talent level and if you put him in an offense like Buffalo, I think I’d rank him as a top-12 WR every single week if he was the WR2 instead of Gabe Davis. But he’s not in Buffalo. He’s in an offense that is going to lean even more on the ground game this next week if JK Dobbins returns. We saw the long touchdown reception from Bateman in Week 2 and that’s what he can give you. I don’t mean to minimize what he can do for your lineup and I’m not telling you to just bench him. But it’s my job as an analyst to warn you about getting carried away with expectations for a player and to recognize when someone is outperforming. Bateman has to score to land in the top-24 WRs on the week and I don’t know if I can bank on that happening every single game. Like I mentioned, he’s WR24 in ECR and WR32 in my rankings. When Bateman’s efficiency comes down – and it will – it’s going to come crashing down hard. I only include him here to make sure everyone just stays measured in expectations.
TE: TJ Hockenson (Detroit Lions)
TJ Hockenson is the player in the top-10 that I am concerned about this week at the TE position. Other than my weekly segment where I wonder why in the world Kyle Pitts is still being ranked at TE4 in ECR. Hockenson’s been involved enough in the offense, but he had a couple of uncharacteristic drops last week that really hurt his potential output. This is Amon-Ra St. Brown’s offense though and Swift being back healthy this week should only take away some of the target volume. It’s not a complete “plummet him down the rankings”, but I’m starting to become a little bit concerned.
Down The Stream
Each week, you’ll find a section of the cheatsheet with streaming options for the QB, TE, and DST positions in fantasy football that are under 50% rostered in Yahoo leagues.
QB: Ryan Tannehill (Tennessee Titans)
There aren’t very many good options out there on the waiver wire this week with a lot of fantasy managers already needing pivot options off of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, etc. However, Tannehill is only rostered in 16% of Yahoo leagues and he can be looked at in this matchup against Las Vegas. The Raiders are allowing 25.1 fantasy points per game to the QB position through two weeks, so there’s an opportunity for Tannehill to produce. It’s far from a sure thing though.
TE: Logan Thomas (Washington Commanders)
It’s shocking to see Thomas just at 35% rostered in Yahoo leagues. He’s working his way back to full strength in this offense that’s actually proving to be productive and we know that he’s able to produce from a fantasy standpoint when he’s fully healthy. He’s absolutely worth scooping up right now and plugging in as a top-10 TE this week against the Eagles.
TOUCHDOWN
Logan Thomas makes this a ball-game!
What a drive from Carson Wentz!
94 yards on just 7 plays!#HTTC pic.twitter.com/XoDJrkOJvq
— Chad Ryan (@ChadwikoTWW) September 18, 2022
DST: Chicago Bears
You have to recognize that the Bears have been gashed on the ground up to this point of the season, so they’re far from a guarantee to produce for your lineup. However, the Texans offense certainly lacks firepower and this game promises to be a low scoring affair. If Chicago can get an INT or two, they could work their way into the top-15 and they’re available in 60% of Yahoo leagues at the time of writing.
